Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
