A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
